Updated on 10/04/24 at 8:18 PM.
By the Oregon Coast Beach Connection Team
(Manzanita, Oregon) – UPDATE AS OF 8:18 PM ON OCTOBER 4 – Another series of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are on their way, potentially leading to a strong display of northern lights on Saturday (October 5) and perhaps Sunday, weather permitting. A more detailed update will be available soon at beachconnection.net/news.
A significant solar event occurred on October 1, prompting the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) to indicate a likely strong aurora borealis in some northern regions. Washington and Oregon may also be able to catch a glimpse, although the visibility might be faint and require a camera for proper capture. (Photo of Yachats – Jacklyn Larsen Photography)
Weather conditions could impact visibility, especially along the Washington coastline and areas along the I-5 corridor, including Seattle and Washington. Thursday night is anticipated to be the prime time for observation, with Kp index forecasts indicating the best chances in the early to late evening.
“The aurora may be visible across many northern states and parts of the lower Midwest extending to Oregon,” stated the SWPC.
The SWPC has issued a geomagnetic storm watch from October 3 to October 5, meaning the storm is active now through Friday, as these dates reflect UTC time (which is eight hours ahead of Northwest time).
Oregon is mentioned in their watch, but it’s on the fringe of the impact zone from the solar activity. While the solar storm is predicted to be quite intense at times—reaching a Kp index close to 7 (usually more around 6)—this does not guarantee visibility for those further south.
Jim Todd, an astronomy expert at Portland’s OMSI, explained that those higher Kp readings are mainly for Canada.
“It might just be barely visible toward the north from Oregon,” he noted. “A good camera with long exposure settings will be beneficial.”
It looks like another situation where you’ll want to grab your camera and see if you can capture any aurora light.
For a while on Monday, hopes were high. This solar storm is a result of a massive X7.1 flare that erupted from the sun on Monday, marking the second-largest flare since a significant one in May that caused considerable aurora displays worldwide.
Check out Washington Coast Weather, Oregon Coast Weather, and Inland Oregon Weather
This occurrence was attributed to multiple CMEs coinciding. However, this time, other factors led to it being less spectacular.
Port Orford – courtesy of Discover Port Orford
While there is considerable geomagnetic activity expected Friday night, not everyone in the Pacific Northwest will be able to see it. Thursday’s potential display hinges on breaks in cloud cover in areas like Portland or Seattle, while Friday may be completely clouded over with rain expected.
Kp index predictions from the SWPC suggest the strongest auroral activity will occur after sunset and may last until around 1 AM on the West Coast. It’s advisable to check the half-hourly updates on the space weather site for more accuracy.
What does the weather forecast look like?
Seaside Aquarium photo
In the Seattle area, clouds are expected to increase on Thursday, while Portland is predicted to be mostly cloudy with rain on Friday. Clear to mostly clear skies are anticipated for Eastern Washington and Southern Oregon on both nights.
The Washington coast may not offer ideal viewing conditions, with mostly cloudy to rainy weather expected, especially on Friday night.
Oregon coastal towns are likely to fare a bit better overall. On the northern coast, from Seaside down through the Tillamook Coast, conditions are expected to be mostly clear on Thursday night, becoming mostly cloudy on Friday. The central coast and southern regions will experience similar weather, though areas towards Coos Bay will have fewer clouds.
The southern stretch of the coast, particularly in Curry County from Port Orford to Brookings, looks to be mostly clear on both nights. However, whether the aurora reaches that far south remains to be seen.
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