Hello! I’m Scott Kennedy, and I’m excited to share this first guest post, which could lead to a series of insights here. Based in San Francisco, I’m an Air Canada Aeroplan Super Elite who loves to explore the globe. My main travel hubs are Toronto (YYZ) and Vancouver (YVR), making Air Canada a convenient choice. Plus, it enables me to accumulate enough Aeroplan miles to enjoy more aspirational trips, including opportunities to use the old mini-RTW (Round-the-World) tickets.
On November 9, the revamped Aeroplan program officially launched. This was highly anticipated, and I was eager to see the improvements. The new integration between Air Canada and Aeroplan, which were formerly separate entities, promised better coordination. I was also intrigued by the credit card benefits, especially since they seem particularly advantageous for high-status travelers like me. However, I found the new dynamic pricing chart to be potentially concerning, but I remained hopeful given their coverage (quotes taken on November 11, 2020).
With Aeroplan, your points cost correlates directly to the cash price of the ticket. To help plan your travel, there’s a straightforward rewards chart that provides the typical range of points needed for your desired flights.
You can expect your reward flight to fit within this range under normal circumstances. However, during high-demand periods*, the point costs may exceed the specified range. Much like cash bookings, you may encounter higher point prices during these peak times.
*High demand periods often arise when booking close to your intended travel date or during popular travel seasons.
This means that booking a last-minute business class flight from YVR to YYZ on December 23 could pose challenges. Otherwise, 60,000 points seemed to be the anticipated upper limit.
I am shocked by the prices associated with the new program.
Let’s examine a popular route I frequently travel: Toronto to Vancouver. I’ve chosen several dates in April, which isn’t too close or far away, and not during any peak periods. I recorded these rates while logged out on November 11, 2020, so no status or credit card perks were applied. This route, spanning 2,078 miles, according to the chart, should be priced at:
- 12,500 to 17,500 points for economy class
- 25,000 to 60,000 points for business class
Using the Points Predictor Tool™, the results align with these ranges. Below is a chart listing the points needed for the cheapest economy class redemption on each flight, with all flights within the published point range highlighted for your convenience.
| Flight | Sun Apr 11 | Mon Apr 12 | Tue Apr 13 | Wed Apr 14 | Thu Apr 15 | Fri Apr 16 | Sat Apr 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC 101 @ 0715 | 26.1 | 26.1 | 26.1 | 26.1 | 26.1 | 26.1 | 26.1 |
| AC 103 @ 0800 | 17.6 | 17.6 | 17.6 | 17.6 | 17.6 | 17.6 | 17.6 |
| AC 105 @ 0900 | 26.1 | 26.1 | 26.1 | 26.1 | 26.1 | 26.1 | 26.1 |
| AC 107 @ 1030 | 26.1 | 26.1 | 17.6 | 26.1 | 26.1 | 26.1 | 26.1 |
| AC 111 @ 1200 | 28.8 | 28.8 | 26.1 | 26.1 | 26.1 | 26.1 | 26.1 |
| AC 115 @ 1450 | 26.1 | 26.1 | 26.1 | 26.1 | 26.1 | 26.1 | 26.1 |
| AC 119 @ 1600 | 28.8 | 26.1 | 26.1 | 26.1 | 26.1 | 26.1 | 26.1 |
| AC 123 @ 1800 | 26.1 | 26.1 | 26.1 | 26.1 | 26.1 | 26.1 | 26.1 |
| AC 127 @ 2000 | 26.1 | 17.6 | 17.6 | 26.1 | 26.1 | 26.1 | 26.1 |
| AC 129 @ 2230 | 26.1 | 17.6 | 17.6 | 17.6 | 17.6 | 17.6 | 17.6 |
It’s important to note that no flights meet the criteria for the specified award range.
Now, here’s a look at the business class pricing.
| Flight | Sun Apr 11 | Mon Apr 12 | Tue Apr 13 | Wed Apr 14 | Thu Apr 15 | Fri Apr 16 | Sat Apr 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC 101 @ 0715 | 100.8 | 100.8 | 100.8 | 100.8 | 31.1 | 100.8 | 100.8 |
| AC 103 @ 0800 | 100.8 | 100.8 | 100.8 | 31.1 | 100.8 | 100.8 | 31.1 |
| AC 105 @ 0900 | 69.3 | 69.3 | 69.3 | 69.3 | 69.3 | 69.3 | 69.3 |
| AC 107 @ 1030 | 69.3 | 69.3 | 69.3 | 69.3 | 69.3 | 69.3 | 69.3 |
| AC 111 @ 1200 | 69.3 | 69.3 | 69.3 | 69.3 | 69.3 | 69.3 | 69.3 |
| AC 115 @ 1450 | 69.3 | 69.3 | 69.3 | 69.3 | 69.3 | 69.3 | 69.3 |
| AC 119 @ 1600 | 69.3 | 69.3 | 69.3 | 69.3 | 69.3 | 69.3 | 69.3 |
| AC 123 @ 1800 | 69.3 | 69.3 | 69.3 | 78.9 | 78.9 | 78.9 | 69.3 |
| AC 127 @ 2000 | 100.8 | 31.1 | 31.1 | 100.8 | 100.8 | 100.8 | 31.1 |
| AC 129 @ 2230 | 69.3 | 69.3 | 69.3 | 69.3 | 69.3 | 69.3 | 69.3 |
As highlighted, on this primary route, which operates 10 flights daily across a week:
- 0 out of 70 economy class flights fell within the specified range (12,500 – 17,500 points). The rest exceeded the maximum by 0.5% to 49.1%.
- 6 out of 70 business class flights were priced within the specified range (25,000 – 60,000 points). The others surpassed the maximum by 15.5% to 68.0%.
To verify this wasn’t a one-time occurrence, I examined several alternative dates throughout 2021. While I didn’t see a better scenario overall, I did notice business class prices skyrocketing to 123,200 points—over double the prescribed maximum. I also came across a rate of 27,800 points, which is towards the lower end of the spectrum, but still not at the lowest possible markup. Throughout this search, I did not discover a single business class redemption available at 25,000 points, and not one economy class redemption at 12,500 points, the prices varied between 17,600 and 26,100 points.
Flights between Toronto and Calgary exhibited similar pricing patterns and failed to mirror the award chart pricing. A distance of 1,675 miles typically costs 12,500 – 17,500 points for economy and 25,000 – 60,000 for business, yet I couldn’t find any economy class awards priced under 16,500 points—a 32% premium over the lowest quoted amount. For business class, while it was often priced at 25,900 points, it frequently exceeded the high range, landing at around 65,300 points.
The chart claims, “You can expect your reward flight to fall within this range during normal times.” I strongly disagree. This assertion is misleading. On one of Air Canada’s most well-known routes, across an entire week of low demand, the stated range was only accurate 8.5% of the time for business class and never for economy class.
While many bloggers are highlighting the positive aspects of partner redemptions and are relieved that Air Canada didn’t adopt fully dynamic pricing, for those of us who frequently travel in Canada or use Air Canada, the pricing discrepancies are staggering.
Moreover, the description surrounding the Points Predictor Tool™ is quite misleading for those attempting to save towards their once-a-year getaway.
If the ranges were accurate 80%, 50%, or even 20% of the time, then one could justify its inclusion as a guideline for those with flexible travel plans. However, as demonstrated, the pricing was consistently outside the specified ranges, making any published award chart virtually useless if it doesn’t align with the actual ticket costs.
